Curzon wrote:Wowhead has had this info for a few days, and it seems to be correct.
Two rares in Molten Front spawn, followed by Ban'thalos within the next half-hour, followed by Magria or Ankha an hour after Banthy.
http://www.wowhead.com/npc=54319#comments:id=1469543
I think these observations are a function of two things. First, nearly all of these rares seem to be on roughly 12 hour spawn timers (with plus or minus a few hours of built-in random variation included), with Skarr/Karkin spawning at roughly twice this rate (~6 hour timer +/- random variation). Second, all of these rares are being killed/tamed within the hour that they show up, and usually within minutes.
This means that each one will generally spawn at roughly the same (on average) 12-hour-clock time twice per day, every day. And because of these relatively regular spawn occurrences for each beast, a spawning pattern can emerge when the collection of rares is looked at together. This pattern will vary from server to server, and will also slowly change and evolve over time, thanks to the occasional, unusually short or unusually long (randomly generated) timer durations.
For example, last week on the Shadow Council server, Ban'thalos was spawning roughly "on the nines" (roughly 9 AM and 9 PM plus or minus a couple of hours), while Magria/Ankha was spawning roughly "on the twelves" (roughly 12 AM and 12 PM plus or minus a couple of hours). This doesn't mean that these spawns were linked, it just means that they are both on spawn timers with an *average* duration of 12 hours, and at
this point in time, their two respective spawn times are roughly 3 hours apart, at around times of 9 & 12, and then 21 & 24 hours. If I were to check the the spawn time of these beasts in a couple of weeks or better, a month, I would most likely find that these two average spawn times will have drifted, either putting them closer together or farther apart, and also shifted as to what time of the day they occur.
For the statisticians: What I am starting to become convinced of is that the spawn timers use a normalized distribution (Gaussian) function to determine the next spawn time, with it's standard (peak) interval kept at the 12 hour point, but with variation from that time following a bell-curve. This would permit the occasional, but quite spectacular, deviation from the standard time, but also put most respawns relatively close to the standard time (+/- 1 sigma). The easier-to-program alternative would be a square wave distribution, with all spawns evenly distributed between two endpoints, say between 8 and 16 hours: the mean would still be 12 hours, but the distribution noticeably 'flatter' and strictly limited between the endpoints. The spawns that I have been observing / hearing about appear to much more 'peaked' in distribution and clustered about the mean.
-- Nanluin
